Reading — 2026 Jan–Apr Recall Set 14

A The changes that have caused the most disagreement are those in pronunciation. We have various sources of evidence for the pronunciations of earlier times, such as the spellings, the treatment of words borrowed from other languages or borrowed by them, the descriptions of contemporary grammarians and spelling-reformers, and the modern pronunciations in all the languages and dialects concerned. From the middle of the sixteenth century, there are in England writers who attempt to describe the position of the speech-organs for the production of English phonemes, and who invent what are in effect systems of phonetic symbols. These various kinds of evidence, combined with a knowledge of the mechanisms of speech-production, can often give us a very good idea of the pronunciation of an earlier age, though absolute certainty is never possible. B When we study the pronunciation of a language over any period of a few generations or more, we find there are always large-scale regularities in the changes: for example, over a certain period of time, just about all the long [a:] vowels in a language may change into long [e:] vowels, or all the [b] consonants in a certain position (for example at the end of a word) may change into [p] consonants. Such regular changes are often called sound laws. There are no universal sound laws (even though sound laws often reflect universal tendencies), but simply particular sound laws for one given language (or dialect) at one given period. C It is also possible that fashion plays a part in the process of change. It certainly plays a part in the spread of change: one person imitates another, and people with the most prestige are most likely to be imitated, so that a change that takes place in one social group may be imitated (more or less accurately) by speakers in another group. When a social group goes up or down in the world, its pronunciation of Russian, which had formerly been considered desirable, became on the contrary an undesirable kind of accent to have, so that people tried to disguise it. Some of the changes in accepted English pronunciation in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries have been shown to consist in the replacement of one style of pronunciation by another style already existing, and it is likely that such substitutions were a result of the great social changes of the period: the increased power and wealth of the middle classes, and their steady infiltration upwards into the ranks of the landed gentry, probably carried elements of middle-class pronunciation into upper-class speech. D A less specific variant of the argument is that the imitation of children is imperfect: they copy their parents’ speech, but never reproduce it exactly. This is true, but it is also true that such deviations from adult speech are usually corrected in later childhood. Perhaps it is more significant that even adults show a certain amount of random variation in their pronunciation of a given phoneme, even if the phonetic context is kept unchanged. This, however, cannot explain changes in pronunciation unless it can be shown that there is some systematic trend in the failures of imitation: if they are merely random deviations they will cancel one another out and there will be no net change in the language. E One such force which is often invoked is the principle of ease, or minimization of effort. The change from fussy to fuzzy would be an example of assimilation, which is a very common kind of change. Assimilation is the changing of a sound under the influence of a neighbouring one. For example, the word scant was once skamt, but the /m/ has been changed to /n/ under the influence of the following /t/. Greater efficiency has hereby been achieved, because /n/ and /t/ are articulated in the same place (with the tip of the tongue against the teeth-ridge), whereas /m/ is articulated elsewhere (with the two lips). So the place of articulation of the nasal consonant has been changed to conform with that of the following plosive. A more recent example of the same kind of thing is the common pronunciation of football as football. F Assimilation is not the only way in which we change our pronunciation in order to increase efficiency. It is very common for consonants to be lost at the end of a word: in Middle English, word-final [-n] was often lost in unstressed syllables, so that baken ‘to bake’ changed from [‘ba:kan] to [‘ba:k3], and later to [ba:k]. Consonant-clusters are often simplified. At one time there was a [t] in words like castle and Christmas, and an initial [k] in words like knight and know. Sometimes a whole syllable is dropped out when two successive syllables begin with the same consonant (haplology): a recent example is temporary, which in Britain is often pronounced as if it were tempory.

A Birds are highly mobile and among the swiftest of living creatures. Flight gives them the power to move in any direction for as long as they have the energy to keep going. They are equipped with lightweight, hollow bones, a finely-tuned navigation system and an ingenious heat-conserving design that allows them to face life in the harshest of climates. Their respiratory systems have to perform efficiently during sustained flights at altitude, so they have evolved a system of extracting air from their lungs that far exceeds that of any other animal. These features enable birds to come and go with the seasons. On the way, they face constant danger and a daily requirement to find food, water and a safe place to rest. So why do millions of birds migrate rather than stay in one place? B Most of the explanation revolves around food. In temperate and arctic regions of the northern hemisphere, food is abundant during a short growing season. Migration evolved as a way for birds to exploit resources that are seasonally abundant and, equally important, to go elsewhere when the resources become scarce or harsh weather arrives. Many species can tolerate cold temperatures if food is plentiful but when food is not available they must migrate. C While this simple explanation for why birds migrate is essentially true, intriguing questions remain. One puzzling fact is that many birds journey much further than would be necessary to find food and good weather. Another apparent conundrum involves the huge migrations performed by arctic birds and mudflat-probing shore birds that breed close to polar regions. In general, the further north a migrant species breeds, the further south it spends the winter. Yet, en route to a final destination in southern latitudes, all these individuals overfly areas of seemingly suitable habitat spanning two hemispheres. Such compulsive journeys probably evolved over time and in response to fluctuations in weather but we do not really know. D But just how do birds reach their destination and, more to the point, how do young birds migrate over vast distances without parental assistance? Very few adults migrate accompanied by their offspring and youngsters may have little or no inkling of their parents' appearance. Cuckoos are famous for depositing their eggs in the nests of other birds that unwittingly serve as foster-parents. Astonishing as this piece of evolutionary behaviour is, it is even more remarkable to consider that, once grown, the young cuckoo makes its own way to ancestral wintering grounds in the tropics before returning single-handedly to northern Europe to seek out a mate among its own kind. E As we continue to study bird migration, its mystery is better understood but also compounded. Mounting evidence has confirmed that birds use the sun and stars to obtain compass directions but true navigation requires an awareness of position and time, especially when lost. Experiments have shown that, after being taken thousands of miles over an unfamiliar landmass, birds are still capable of returning rapidly to nest sites. Such phenomenal powers are the product of computing a number of sophisticated cues including an innate map of the night sky and the pull of the Earth's magnetic field. How the birds use their 'instruments' remains unknown, but one thing is clear – they see the world with a sensory perception superior to ours. Most small birds migrate at night and take their direction from the position of the setting sun. However, as well as seeing the sun go down, they also seem to see the plane of polarised light it causes. This calibrates their compass. Travelling at night provides other benefits: the danger of meeting predators as well as the risk of dehydration due to flying for long periods in warm sunlit skies is reduced. Furthermore, at night the air structure is cool and smooth and conducive to sustained, stable flight. F Nevertheless, all journeys involve considerable risk and part of the skill in arriving safely is setting off at the right time. This means accurate weather forecasting and utilising favourable winds. Birds are adept at both and, in tests, some can detect the minute difference in barometric pressure between the floor and ceiling of a room. Often birds react to weather changes before there is any visible sign of them. Certain species that feed on grassland flee at the onset of a cold snap because when the ground surface freezes the birds could starve. Yet they return ahead of a thaw, their arrival linked to a pressure change presaging an improvement in the weather. G Unfortunately, some never complete their journey. Not so long ago the assumption was that a bird in the air on a dark windy night with no visible reference points to judge position was, like a pilot without radar, hopelessly lost. We now know this is not the case. Losses do occur, but mainly because birds get swept off course by strong air masses against which battle is futile, and this results in a watery grave. Indeed, it is not unusual for ocean fish to be caught with bird remains in their stomachs. But sometimes there's a silver lining. Each autumn a small number of North American birds are blown across the Atlantic by fast-moving westerly tail winds. Not only do they arrive safely in Europe but, based on tracking evidence, some make it back to North America in the following spring – probably after spending the winter with European migrants in sunny African climes.

The business of predicting the future has a long history. Several millennia ago in ancient Greece, people would consult Apollo, the god of prophecy, to learn if fortune favoured their chosen course of action. The tradition has changed considerably since then. Today, futurology is a science that drives a thriving business — its three main consumers being the military, big business and national governments. Modern futurists do not predict that a certain event will occur at a particular time. Instead, they look at what is happening now to see what this may lead to further down the line. Alternatively, they start with a desired result and work out how people and organisations can be manoeuvred into realising that ambition. The oil company Shell has been one of the major producers of future studies. It recently published a comprehensive study looking at how people may live in 2020 and 2050, given the type of energy which is purchased. Philip Watts from Shell says, ‘This is not an exercise in prophecy. Rather it is designed to challenge our thinking so that we can make better choices in today’s business world.’ The short-term attitudes and bureaucracy of many governments can be frustrating to futurists, but this mutual wariness is slowly changing. The Scottish Parliament recently hosted a conference of 150 futurists from across the globe. The parliament is setting up a forum to look at where Scotland is heading in the next 20 years. Among the issues are demographics and economic competition within Europe and with Asia. It is a first for the United Kingdom, although not for Europe — this strategy has already been put into practice in Finland. Eamonn Kelly, head of the San Francisco-based Global Business Network futurist group, was one of those who attended the conference. According to Kelly, ‘There are many different tools a futurist can employ but essentially there are three main ingredients. First, there is the “science”… Then there is the “craft”… Finally, there is the “art”.’ Dr James Canton is founder of the San Francisco-based Institute for Global Futures and has been an adviser to leading US companies. Like many futurists he started in the private sector but is also comfortable in academia. ‘A futurist is an alchemist who mixes the qualitative,’ he says. ‘He needs intuition and has to work with people from a range of academic backgrounds… Futurists are constantly discussing ideas with their peers, but they do not simply surf the net picking up on the latest fad.’ New Zealand futurist Robin Gunston says, ‘I don’t believe you can train yourself to become a futurist… Futurology requires extensive life experience and a broad education… Much of modern teenage culture is about me… that does not make it easy to see different kinds of futures.’ Those best able to respond to futurists are the most agile. Large corporations beholden to shareholders and governments burdened by bureaucracy are often simply too slow. Asian companies tend to be better prepared because they take a longer perspective. Sony, for example, is very forward-looking. ‘The winners will be those corporations and governments which conduct future studies and take steps to become future-proofed.’ According to Alan Beckley, a former West Mercia chief inspector, getting public bodies in the UK future-proofed could be a long process. ‘People are concerned about the methodology and the reliability of future studies,’ he says. However, in 2003 Britain’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) published its strategic thinking for the next decade. FCO minister Bill Rammell says, ‘We do occasionally look further ahead than the next ten years on issues such as demographics… Even assumptions about technology get very shaky beyond that.’ American futurist Steve Brant stresses that the future has yet to be chosen. ‘People can create the future they want using various points of leverage,’ he says. The aim of this profession is to imagine the best possible future and start creating it today.